Impact of Insurgency on Agricultural Sector in Nigeria



Odunsi-Oyewole Olutosin Adefunke

Department of Economics

Oyo-State College of Education Lanlate, Lanlate. Oyo State, Nigeria

School of Secondary Education (Arts and Social Sciences programmes)  


Insurgency has been an unpleasant reality in today’s Nigerian society, especially in the north eastern region, since 2009; it has manifested itself in various forms such as kidnapping, suicide, attacks, self-suicide bombing, corruption, and armed robbery, among others. This has far-reaching implications for the economy as a whole. As a result, the researchers looked into the impact of insurgency on Nigeria’s agricultural industry. The researchers used an ex-post facto research design and a purposive sampling technique. Secondary data was gathered from the CBN Statistical Bulletin and the website of the Council on Foreign Relations. The data is in the form of a time series that spans seven years on a monthly basis from 2014 to 2020, with a total of 84 observations. The estimating technique employed was Toda and Yamamoto VAR.  The study discovered that insurgency and the agricultural sector have a causal link, and that insurgency may be utilized to forecast the future trend or behavior of agricultural output in the economy. As a result, the study stated that reducing the rate of insurgency by providing funds and implementing effective and efficient initiatives to reinvigorate the economy in order to give job opportunities might benefit the agriculture sector. As a result, the study advised that the government stimulate the economy by generating job opportunities, which will, in turn, reduce the displacement of aggressiveness by the unemployed onto innocent people, which will lead to kidnapping and terrorism.

Keywords: Insurgency, Agricultural sector, Toda and Yamamoto VAR





Odunsi-Oyewole Olutosin Adefunke (2022). Impact of Insurgency on Agricultural Sector in Nigeria. International Journal of Research in Education and Sustainable Development, 2(1), 37-47. Available online at:

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